Pension Pulse

Richard Dufour of La Presse reports François Trahan sees the stock market fall by 35% (translated from French): The stock market will end 2023 in the red, according to forecaster François Trahan. There is no chance of avoiding a recession, according to him. He even believes that the S&P 500 index risks falling by 35% within 18 months. “At its trough, the S&P 500 index will drop to around 2,800 points,” says François Trahan during an interview with La Presse. This flagship index is currently at 4275 points. François Trahan is visiting Montreal this week. He came from Virginia, where he now lives, to meet clients and to participate this Thursday at noon in an event organized by the CFA Montreal organization downtown. Admitted to the Hall of Fame of Institutional Investors as a strategist in 2016, François Trahan notably predicted the end of the speculative real estate bubble in 2007. “We have everything to have a severe recession,” he says. “I don't know if the...

Amila Dedovic of Business News Australia reports Costa board accepts $1.4b takeover offer from Paine Schwartz, Driscoll’s and BCI: One of Australia’s largest fruit and vegetable producers, Costa Group Holdings (ASX: CGC), has announced today it is accepting a $1.49 billion takeover offer from a consortium led by private US equity firm Paine Schwartz Partners (PSP). The approved $3.20 a share deal comes after months of negotiations with the suitor, which slashed its initial $1.6 billion offer after Costa revealed underlying profit for the full year would take a $30 million hit due to unfavourable growing conditions . If the deal overcomes regulatory hurdles, it will see the consortium snap up the remaining 85.16% stake it does not already own. Led by PSP, the consortium also comprises entities controlled by the world's largest berry company Driscoll's Inc and the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI). The Costa board has unanimously recommended that...

Barbara Shecter of the National Post reports China is a dilemma for asset managers juggling growth and risk, AIMCo's Siddall says: China poses a conundrum for asset managers because while it is cheap and growing, there are risks when it comes to rule of law and transparency, said Evan Siddall, chief executive of the Alberta Investment Management Corp. (AIMCo) . The $158-billion pension and endowment manager opened its first office in Asia this month, in Singapore, and Siddall spoke about AIMCo’s plans there following a speech in Toronto on Sept. 26. “My guess is that we’ll probably position ourselves in economies around that market that can participate in the growth but don’t have some of the risks,” he said. “If you can find opportunities to participate in the growth of consumer spending in China without actually being in China, those are attractive, depending on the price.” Siddall noted, however, that “mis-pricing” or a mismatch between price and true value that m...

Joel Dryden of CBC News reports Alberta to explore leaving CPP as report lays claim to $334B, more than half of fund: The Alberta government released a long-awaited report Thursday on the possibility of establishing an Alberta-only pension plan, claiming the province is entitled to a staggering $334-billion asset transfer from the Canada Pension Plan in 2027. That's more than half of the fund's estimated total net assets . The third-party report, compiled by consultant LifeWorks, attributes the figure to Alberta's high employment rates, young population, and higher pensionable earnings, which it claims has meant the province has sent billions more into the CPP compared to what it has received. Withdrawing from the CPP could potentially mean the rest of the country would end up paying more for their pension contributions (though Trevor Tombe, an associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary, said it's not mechanically guaranteed ). Quebec woul...