Top Funds' Activity in Q4 2015
Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Sam Forgione of Reuters report, Top U.S. hedge funds bet on Morgan Stanley and AIG:
Worse still, the Financial Times reports that financial engineers are reverse engineering hedge funds' secret sauce and packaging it into low cost ETFs (something Bridgewater has been saying for a long time and even wrote a paper on Selling Beta as Alpha). The only ETF on gurus I know is the Global X Guru ETF (GURU) but it's performing as miserably as hedge funds and it's very illiquid.
What else? The Oracle of Omaha lost a little ground in the eighth year of his $1 million 10-year wager that an inexpensive plain stock index fund will outperform high-fee hedge funds. But, as Fortune's Carol Loomis reports in her annual update, Buffett still has a big lead.
Still, everyone wants to know what the real smart money is doing, especially top hedge funds which are typically able to deliver alpha (more like leveraged beta!) in good and bad times. This is why they are able to collect 2 & 20 in fees and amass extraordinary wealth which they can then use to fund Super PACs against progressive candidates like Bernie Sanders (I wonder what public sector unions funding these mega hedge funds via their pension contributions think of this).
Welcome to the crazy world of hedge funds! It's all so sexy, so fast-paced, that Andrew Ross Sorkin co-created a hit show called Billions so Joe and Jane Smith can be transported into this crazy world they can only dream of. And while I too am hooked on the show, loving the tension between Bobby "Axe" Axelrod and Charles "Chuck" Rhoades Jr., the show is full of shit and adds a lot of sauce to the real world of hedge funds and the "exciting lives" of their "larger than life" managers.
Anyways, you don't care about Bobby the "Axe" Axelrod and some hit show on hedge funds. You're reading this comment because you're all hooked on the real life drama of crazy, schizoid markets and want to look at the portfolios of top funds to gain some insights on where they "invest" their clients' money.
You should start by reading my last quarterly comment covering top funds' activity. You can also read many articles on 13F filings on Barron's, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes and other sites like Insider Monkey, Holdings Channel, and whale wisdom.
Those of you who want to delve more deeply into these filings can subscribe to services offered by market folly and 13D monitor whose principals also offer the 13D Activist Fund incorporating the best ideas from top activist funds. You can also track tweets from Hedgemind and subscribe to their services.
My favorite service for tracking top funds is Symmetric run by Sam Abbas and David Moon. In my opinion, Sam and David have created one of the best services to track hedge fund holdings and more importantly to dynamically rank hedge funds based on their holdings and their alpha generation. CNBC pro subscribers can read more on where they see hedge fund activity here and you should all read their latest blog comment here where they discuss top funds and crowded trades.
But when it comes to hedge funds, you need someone like me to grill the hell out of "superstar managers" and their positions. By the time I'm done with the Bobby "Axe" Axelrods of this world, they'll be glad it's over, feeling tired but also happy because my grilling is unlike anything they've ever experienced (just ask Ray Dalio).
When I used to sit in front of hedge fund managers, I was always polite but very prepared. Once I started asking questions, I'd listen carefully to their responses and often play devil's advocate using information from other hedge funds as well as my reading of macro trends. If I didn't like something or was uncomfortable with a certain position, I definitely voiced my concerns.
And if they didn't like my questions and got annoyed or arrogant, I'd grill them even harder. It's one thing managing your own money, taking huge risks, but when you're managing institutional money and charging hefty fees, you better be able to answer tough questions on investment risk, operational risk and risk management even if you have skin in the game.
Some hedge fund managers are tired of dealing with institutions and regulators. A few are actively looking to convert their operations into a family office so they can run their own monies without the oversight of the SEC. George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stan Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson, Steve Cohen have done this but they're part of the few. Most hedge funds still need and want institutional billions so they can continue collecting that all-important 2% (or 1.5%) management fee in good and bad times.
And converting into a family office doesn't mean you can stop reporting your holdings, especially when you're managing billions.
Below, I provide you with links of top funds where you can look at their top holdings as of the end of last year. Keep in mind a lot of things have happened since then and it will be a lot more interesting to see what top funds bought and sold in Q1 2016 but that data won't be available till mid-May. This is why I keep you up-to-date with my market comments like here, here and here.
Still, there is a lot of information here and if you use it wisely, it can help you make decisions. For example, look at the top positions of Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global Investors (click on image):
You will see the fund increased its stake in Teva Pharmaceuticals, Pioneer Natural Resources, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. And Viking wasn't the only hedge fund buying more Valeant. Paulson Capital, Brahman Capital, and Iridian Asset Management all increased their stake in Valeant (see top holders of this stock here).
Now, we all heard about Bill Ackman's woes on Valeant, but when you see other top funds increasing their stake, you should start looking at the stock more closely for a possible pop (click on image):
Interestingly, the stock has been consolidating around its 50-week moving average but it's still technically weak and in a downtrend. I wouldn't touch it yet but if it reports good news, it can easily pop from here. And once momentum starts building in this biotech stock, watch out, it can move up very quickly as short sellers cover and big buyers come in.
But remember what I told you about hedge fund hotels. When big hedge funds clamor into a stock, it can turn out to be a disaster if things don't pan out the way they want. And when they exit a position, it's destruction all the way around (especially for the poor retail and institutional bag holders). That's why David Einhorn came out recently with his best advice: "Don't blindly follow me."
What else? Look at the top holdings of Icahn Associates (click on image):
Icahn is a heavy hitter who takes very concentrated bets. He's got real chutzpah with his money which is why people track his moves closely. But he's gotten whacked hard on many of his energy and commodity plays like Chesapeake and TransOcean. He also got clobbered on Freeport McMoran where he didn't sell a single share last quarter and remains the top holder with over 100 million shares (Icahn should of heeded his own dire warning of a looming catastrophe ahead and steered clear of or shorted these stocks).
Freeport's shares have bounced back from their lows but all these energy and commodity names swing wildly with the price of oil and they're all bets on a global recovery (click on image):
It's worth noting, however, that other well-known hedge fund managers dipped into energy and commodity names last quarter. Reuters reports that David Tepper's Appaloosa Management bet on the embattled energy sector during the fourth quarter, buying stocks including Kinder Morgan, Southwestern Energy Co., Freeport-McMoRan, and Williams Partners.
Given my outlook on global deflation and the new negative normal, I still recommend investors steer clear of energy and commodity names, but as I keep saying, there will be strong, tradeable countertrend rallies in these sectors and on specific stocks.
In these markets, you have to pick your spots carefully. If you want more information on how to use these 13-F filings properly or if you need help grilling Bobby the "Axe" Axelrod (lol), feel free to contact me at LKolivakis@gmail.com.
More importantly, please take the time to donate or subscribe to my blog on the right hand side. There is nobody on this planet that covers pensions and investments quite like I do, and unlike these fabulously wealthy hedge fund asset gatherers, I'm not charging you 2 & 20 for leveraged beta, so get to it already and please donate or subscribe to show your support.
Have fun peering into the portfolios of top funds but be warned, in these markets, things move so fast that a lot of this information is useless or worse, deadly in the hands of amateurs. I'll add some funds over the next few days (feel free to send names not covered below).
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading.
Unlike fund of hedge funds, the fees are lower because there is a single manager managing the portfolio, allocating across various alpha strategies as opportunities arise. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Citadel Advisors
2) Balyasny Asset Management
3) Farallon Capital Management
4) Peak6 Investments
5) Kingdon Capital Management
6) Millennium Management
7) Eton Park Capital Management
8) HBK Investments
9) Highbridge Capital Management
10) Highland Capital Management
11) Pentwater Capital Management
12) Och-Ziff Capital Management
13) Pine River Capital Capital Management
14) Carlson Capital Management
15) Magnetar Capital
16) Mount Kellett Capital Management
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Perry Capital
20) Visium Asset Management
21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
22) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest in bond and currency markets but the top macro funds are able to invest across all asset classes, including equities.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson and now Steve Cohen have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money and basically only answer to themselves (that is my definition of true investment success).
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Caxton Associates (Bruce Covner)
6) Tudor Investment Corporation
7) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
8) Moore Capital Management
9) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
10) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Market Neutral, Quant and CTA Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to initiate their positions. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Numeric Investors
6) Analytic Investors
7) Winton Capital Management
8) Graham Capital Management
9) SABA Capital Management
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
4) BHR Capital
5) Fisher Asset Management
6) Baupost Group
7) Fairfax Financial Holdings
8) Fairholme Capital
9) Trian Fund Management
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Schneider Capital Management
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Scout Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) ValueAct Capital
36) Vulcan Value Partners
37) Okumus Fund Management
38) Eagle Capital Management
39) Sasco Capital
40) Lyrical Asset Management
41) Gabelli Funds
42) Brave Warrior Advisors
43) Matrix Asset Advisors
44) Jet Capital
45) Starboard Value
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Appaloosa Capital Management
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) JAT Capital Management
8) Coatue Management
9) Omega Advisors (Leon Cooperman)
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Karsh Capital Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Andor Capital Management
29) Silver Point Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) SAB Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) T. Boone Pickens BP Capital
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Melvin Capital Partners
55) Owl Creek Asset Management
56) Portolan Capital Management
57) Proxima Capital Management
58) Tiger Global Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Viking Global Investors
63) Marshall Wace
64) York Capital Management
65) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Armistice Capital
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Palo Alto Investors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Ghost Tree Capital
10) Sectoral Asset Management
11) Oracle Investment Management
12) Perceptive Advisors
13) Consonance Capital Management
14) Camber Capital Management
15) Redmile Group
16) RTW Investments
17) Bridger Capital Management
18) Southeastern Asset Management
19) Bridgeway Capital Management
20) Cohen & Steers
21) Cardinal Capital Management
22) Munder Capital Management
23) Diamondhill Capital Management
24) Cortina Asset Management
25) Geneva Capital Management
26) Criterion Capital Management
27) Daruma Capital Management
28) 12 West Capital Management
29) RA Capital Management
30) Sarissa Capital Management
31) SIO Capital Management
32) Senzar Asset Management
33) Sphera Funds
34) Tang Capital Management
35) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
36) Venbio Select Advisors
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason Capital Management
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
2) Fiera Capital Corporation
3) West Face Capital
4) Hexavest
5) 1832 Asset Management
6) Jarislowsky, Fraser
7) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
8) TD Asset Management
9) CIBC Asset Management
10) Beutel, Goodman & Co
11) Greystone Managed Investments
12) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
13) Great West Life Assurance Co
14) Guardian Capital
15) Scotia Capital
16) AGF Investments
17) Montrusco Bolton
18) Venator Capital Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I track activity of some pension funds, endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, CNBC's Landon Dowdy takes a look at how some of the Street's biggest money managers are investing their funds. And CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" crew discusses the morning's top attention-grabbing headlines, including a letter hedge fund investor Ray Dalio wrote to investors, stating to expect lower returns and higher risk (tell us something we don't know Ray!).
Lastly, Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz and Bloomberg's Julie Hyman examine the hedge fund winners and losers in the latest 13F filings. They speak on "Bloomberg Markets." Listen to Ritholtz, he's incredibly arrogant and annoying, but he says it like it is.
Top U.S. hedge fund management firms, including Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC, took new positions in Morgan Stanley (MS.N) during the fourth quarter, ahead of the bank's cost-cutting measures and bond-management reshuffling.Bill Peters of Investor's Business Daily also reports, Top Funds Reshuffle Apple, Facebook, Northrop Stock In Q4 Moves:
Third Point purchased 3 million shares, while Carlson Capital bought 2.2 million shares to own 2.3 million shares during the last three months of 2015, regulatory filings showed Friday and Tuesday.
Adage Capital added to its position, buying 1.6 million shares to own 4.5 million shares at the end of the quarter, SEC filings showed.
So far this year, Morgan Stanley shares are down more than 27 percent. In January, Morgan Stanley named Sam Kellie-Smith to head its fixed-income trading unit as it seeks to turn around the struggling business. The bank said it was cutting 25 percent of its fixed income jobs because increased regulation has made trading bonds less profitable.
These hedge-fund SEC disclosures are backward-looking and come out 45 days after the end of each quarter. Still, the filings offer a glimpse into what hedge fund managers saw as investment opportunities.
The filings do not disclose short positions, or bets that a stock will fall. As a result, the public filings do not always present a complete picture of a management firm's stock holdings.
The following are some of the hot stocks and sectors in which hedge fund managers either took new positions or exited existing stakes in the fourth quarter.
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP (AIG.N)
Omega Advisors increased its stake in the insurer by 731,200 shares to 4.1 million shares. Jana Partners, the hedge fund founded by Barry Rosenstein, bought 4.3 million shares with a market value of $263.6 million at the end of the quarter. So far this year, AIG shares are down 14.5 percent.
AIG has been facing pressure from activist investors Carl Icahn and John Paulson since October to split up, and last week nominated Paulson and an Icahn representative to serve on its board after posting two straight quarterly losses.
Icahn increased his stake in AIG in the fourth quarter to 42.2 million shares from 1.4 million shares.
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC (BAX.N)
Activist investor Jeff Smith's Starboard Value nearly doubled its holding in the healthcare company to 2.4 million shares. Hedge fund Visium Asset Management bought roughly 1 million shares to own 1.03 million shares. Fellow activist investor Jana Partners, however, had a different view, slashing its stake by half to own 5.7 million at the end of the quarter.
EBAY INC (EBAY.O)
Farallon Capital Management sold its 4.5 million stake in the online marketplace. Meanwhile, Third Point cut its stake by 5 million shares to 4 million shares.
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE.N)
John Burbank's Passport Capital, one of 2016's best performers, opened a new position of 4.9 million shares in the industrial conglomerate.
HERBALIFE LTD (HLF.N)
Huber Capital trimmed its stake in the nutrition company by selling 96,800 shares to own 1.2 million shares now.
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDING INC (HTZ.N)
Jana Partners exited the car-rental company, selling 39.2 million shares.
JC PENNEY CO INC (JCP.N)
Omega Advisors, overseen by Leon Cooperman and Steven Einhorn, sold its entire stake of 500,000 shares in the department store chain.
KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN INC (GMCR.O)
Farallon Capital Management took a new stake of 1.6 million shares in the maker of coffee-brewing machines.
MBIA INC (MBI.N)
Distressed investor Marc Lasry exited the bond insurer, selling 75,000 shares.
MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ.O)
Some existing investors in candy and food maker Mondelez, which has caught the attention of activists Pershing Square Capital and Trian Partners, raised their stakes, including Passport Capital, which owned 1.2 million at the end of the quarter.
Zweig-Dimenna Associates bought 187,900 additional shares to own 394,650 shares. But Boston-based Adage Capital Partners cut its stake nearly in half, selling 2.2 million shares to own 2.7 million at the end of the quarter.
PFIZER INC (PFE.N)
Jana added a new stake of 9.2 million shares in the drug maker. Suvretta Capital added 1.9 million shares to own 2.5 million. Omega Advisors cut its stake by 3.5 mln shares to 1.3 million shares.
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES CO (PXD.N)
Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group exited the stock of the oil and gas exploration company, selling 4.1 million shares. Senator Investment Group exited its 500,000-share position.
WESTROCK CO (WRK.N)
Activist investor Starboard Value cut its stake in the packaging company by 26 percent to 4.5 million shares.
WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC (WMB.N)
Jana Partners took a new position of 3.8 million shares in the energy company.
YAHOO INC (YHOO.O)
Jet Capital added a new position, buying 2.1 million shares of the Internet company, while Carlson Capital bought 2.9 million shares, also a new position. Yahoo shares are down 18.7 percent year-to-date.
YUM BRANDS INC (YUM.N)
Serengeti took a new position in the restaurant company, buying 135,000 shares. Third Point slashed its stake by 11.5 million shares to just 75,300 shares.
ZOETIS INC (ZTS.N)
Jana Partners sold 3.9 million shares to exit the animal health company, which was spun off by Pfizer.
Shares of tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) and defense giants Raytheon (RTN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) saw notable action by top funds in the fourth quarter.
Here’s a roundup of who’s building or cutting their stake in what, following regulatory disclosures late Tuesday:
Greenlight Capital, Carl Icahn Shed Apple
Greenlight Capital, run by billionaire David Einhorn, cut its stake in Apple last quarter by around 46%, while the hedge fund unloaded its entire stake in Micron Technology (MU). The fund also added a stake in Macy’s (M).
Meanwhile, activist investor Carl Icahn reduced his stake in Apple by 7 million shares to 45.8 million shares. He previously has added to his stake in Apple as he pushed for a bigger investor payout from the iPhone maker.
Apple last month reported fiscal-Q1 iPhone sales that were essentially flat, and forecast its first sales drop in some 13 years as demand slows in China.
Apple shares closed up 1.5% in the stock market today. Micron jumped 5.7% after Mizuho upgraded the stock to buy, while Macy’s rallied 1.55%.
Tiger Global, However, Bulks Up On Apple
Hedge fund Tiger Global Management opened new positions in Apple and Priceline (PCLN).
The firm slashed its stake in Chinese auto-information website Autohome (ATHM), which has tempered its sales forecasts as China’s economy decelerates.
Priceline shares spiked 11.2% Wednesday after the company reported strong quarterly results. Autohome rose 2% after reporting strong Q4 results and guidance.
Soros Bails On Netflix, Facebook
Soros Fund Management, the investment fund run by billionaire financier George Soros, abandoned its stake in Netflix (NFLX) in Q4, raised its stake in Amazon (AMZN) and cut its stake in Facebook.
The fund also trimmed its stake in Dow Chemical (DOW) and rid itself of its positions in Chevron (CVX) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK), amid a collapse in commodity prices.
Netflix rallied 6.4%, Amazon gained 2.5%. Dow Chemical added 2.5%, Chevron climbed 4.1%, and Chesapeake rose 1%.
Duquesne Also Sheds Facebook Shares
Duquesne Family Office, run by former Soros employee Stanley Druckenmiller, lowered its stake in Facebook, but added stakes in Alphabet (GOOGL), Northrop Grumman and Raytheon to its portfolio.
Alphabet closed up 2%. Northrop rallied 3.2% a day after the government upheld its contract to build the long-range strike bomber for the Air Force. Raytheon ticked up 0.7%.
Nelson Peltz Cuts GM, DuPont Positions
Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management shed its stake in Ingersoll-Rand (IR) and cut its stake in General Electric (GE) and DuPont (DD).
Ingersoll-Rand rose 1.4%, and GM gained 2.4%.
Elliott Moves Away From Media?It's that time of the year again when we get to peek into the activity of top hedge funds, with a 45-day lag. And a lot has happened since the end of 2015 as most hedge funds got crushed, incapable of escaping the recent market carnage.
Elliott Management sold off its stakes in Comcast (CMCSA) and 21st Century Fox (FOXA). The investment firm, founded by Paul Singer, hiked its stake in metal giant Alcoa (AA).
Comcast rose 0.4%, while Fox surged 3.3% and Alcoa leapt 4.9%.
Worse still, the Financial Times reports that financial engineers are reverse engineering hedge funds' secret sauce and packaging it into low cost ETFs (something Bridgewater has been saying for a long time and even wrote a paper on Selling Beta as Alpha). The only ETF on gurus I know is the Global X Guru ETF (GURU) but it's performing as miserably as hedge funds and it's very illiquid.
What else? The Oracle of Omaha lost a little ground in the eighth year of his $1 million 10-year wager that an inexpensive plain stock index fund will outperform high-fee hedge funds. But, as Fortune's Carol Loomis reports in her annual update, Buffett still has a big lead.
Still, everyone wants to know what the real smart money is doing, especially top hedge funds which are typically able to deliver alpha (more like leveraged beta!) in good and bad times. This is why they are able to collect 2 & 20 in fees and amass extraordinary wealth which they can then use to fund Super PACs against progressive candidates like Bernie Sanders (I wonder what public sector unions funding these mega hedge funds via their pension contributions think of this).
Welcome to the crazy world of hedge funds! It's all so sexy, so fast-paced, that Andrew Ross Sorkin co-created a hit show called Billions so Joe and Jane Smith can be transported into this crazy world they can only dream of. And while I too am hooked on the show, loving the tension between Bobby "Axe" Axelrod and Charles "Chuck" Rhoades Jr., the show is full of shit and adds a lot of sauce to the real world of hedge funds and the "exciting lives" of their "larger than life" managers.
Anyways, you don't care about Bobby the "Axe" Axelrod and some hit show on hedge funds. You're reading this comment because you're all hooked on the real life drama of crazy, schizoid markets and want to look at the portfolios of top funds to gain some insights on where they "invest" their clients' money.
You should start by reading my last quarterly comment covering top funds' activity. You can also read many articles on 13F filings on Barron's, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Forbes and other sites like Insider Monkey, Holdings Channel, and whale wisdom.
Those of you who want to delve more deeply into these filings can subscribe to services offered by market folly and 13D monitor whose principals also offer the 13D Activist Fund incorporating the best ideas from top activist funds. You can also track tweets from Hedgemind and subscribe to their services.
My favorite service for tracking top funds is Symmetric run by Sam Abbas and David Moon. In my opinion, Sam and David have created one of the best services to track hedge fund holdings and more importantly to dynamically rank hedge funds based on their holdings and their alpha generation. CNBC pro subscribers can read more on where they see hedge fund activity here and you should all read their latest blog comment here where they discuss top funds and crowded trades.
But when it comes to hedge funds, you need someone like me to grill the hell out of "superstar managers" and their positions. By the time I'm done with the Bobby "Axe" Axelrods of this world, they'll be glad it's over, feeling tired but also happy because my grilling is unlike anything they've ever experienced (just ask Ray Dalio).
When I used to sit in front of hedge fund managers, I was always polite but very prepared. Once I started asking questions, I'd listen carefully to their responses and often play devil's advocate using information from other hedge funds as well as my reading of macro trends. If I didn't like something or was uncomfortable with a certain position, I definitely voiced my concerns.
And if they didn't like my questions and got annoyed or arrogant, I'd grill them even harder. It's one thing managing your own money, taking huge risks, but when you're managing institutional money and charging hefty fees, you better be able to answer tough questions on investment risk, operational risk and risk management even if you have skin in the game.
Some hedge fund managers are tired of dealing with institutions and regulators. A few are actively looking to convert their operations into a family office so they can run their own monies without the oversight of the SEC. George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stan Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson, Steve Cohen have done this but they're part of the few. Most hedge funds still need and want institutional billions so they can continue collecting that all-important 2% (or 1.5%) management fee in good and bad times.
And converting into a family office doesn't mean you can stop reporting your holdings, especially when you're managing billions.
Below, I provide you with links of top funds where you can look at their top holdings as of the end of last year. Keep in mind a lot of things have happened since then and it will be a lot more interesting to see what top funds bought and sold in Q1 2016 but that data won't be available till mid-May. This is why I keep you up-to-date with my market comments like here, here and here.
Still, there is a lot of information here and if you use it wisely, it can help you make decisions. For example, look at the top positions of Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global Investors (click on image):
You will see the fund increased its stake in Teva Pharmaceuticals, Pioneer Natural Resources, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. And Viking wasn't the only hedge fund buying more Valeant. Paulson Capital, Brahman Capital, and Iridian Asset Management all increased their stake in Valeant (see top holders of this stock here).
Now, we all heard about Bill Ackman's woes on Valeant, but when you see other top funds increasing their stake, you should start looking at the stock more closely for a possible pop (click on image):
Interestingly, the stock has been consolidating around its 50-week moving average but it's still technically weak and in a downtrend. I wouldn't touch it yet but if it reports good news, it can easily pop from here. And once momentum starts building in this biotech stock, watch out, it can move up very quickly as short sellers cover and big buyers come in.
But remember what I told you about hedge fund hotels. When big hedge funds clamor into a stock, it can turn out to be a disaster if things don't pan out the way they want. And when they exit a position, it's destruction all the way around (especially for the poor retail and institutional bag holders). That's why David Einhorn came out recently with his best advice: "Don't blindly follow me."
What else? Look at the top holdings of Icahn Associates (click on image):
Icahn is a heavy hitter who takes very concentrated bets. He's got real chutzpah with his money which is why people track his moves closely. But he's gotten whacked hard on many of his energy and commodity plays like Chesapeake and TransOcean. He also got clobbered on Freeport McMoran where he didn't sell a single share last quarter and remains the top holder with over 100 million shares (Icahn should of heeded his own dire warning of a looming catastrophe ahead and steered clear of or shorted these stocks).
Freeport's shares have bounced back from their lows but all these energy and commodity names swing wildly with the price of oil and they're all bets on a global recovery (click on image):
It's worth noting, however, that other well-known hedge fund managers dipped into energy and commodity names last quarter. Reuters reports that David Tepper's Appaloosa Management bet on the embattled energy sector during the fourth quarter, buying stocks including Kinder Morgan, Southwestern Energy Co., Freeport-McMoRan, and Williams Partners.
Given my outlook on global deflation and the new negative normal, I still recommend investors steer clear of energy and commodity names, but as I keep saying, there will be strong, tradeable countertrend rallies in these sectors and on specific stocks.
In these markets, you have to pick your spots carefully. If you want more information on how to use these 13-F filings properly or if you need help grilling Bobby the "Axe" Axelrod (lol), feel free to contact me at LKolivakis@gmail.com.
More importantly, please take the time to donate or subscribe to my blog on the right hand side. There is nobody on this planet that covers pensions and investments quite like I do, and unlike these fabulously wealthy hedge fund asset gatherers, I'm not charging you 2 & 20 for leveraged beta, so get to it already and please donate or subscribe to show your support.
Have fun peering into the portfolios of top funds but be warned, in these markets, things move so fast that a lot of this information is useless or worse, deadly in the hands of amateurs. I'll add some funds over the next few days (feel free to send names not covered below).
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading.
Unlike fund of hedge funds, the fees are lower because there is a single manager managing the portfolio, allocating across various alpha strategies as opportunities arise. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Citadel Advisors
2) Balyasny Asset Management
3) Farallon Capital Management
4) Peak6 Investments
5) Kingdon Capital Management
6) Millennium Management
7) Eton Park Capital Management
8) HBK Investments
9) Highbridge Capital Management
10) Highland Capital Management
11) Pentwater Capital Management
12) Och-Ziff Capital Management
13) Pine River Capital Capital Management
14) Carlson Capital Management
15) Magnetar Capital
16) Mount Kellett Capital Management
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Perry Capital
20) Visium Asset Management
21) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
22) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest in bond and currency markets but the top macro funds are able to invest across all asset classes, including equities.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson and now Steve Cohen have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money and basically only answer to themselves (that is my definition of true investment success).
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Caxton Associates (Bruce Covner)
6) Tudor Investment Corporation
7) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
8) Moore Capital Management
9) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
10) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Market Neutral, Quant and CTA Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to initiate their positions. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Numeric Investors
6) Analytic Investors
7) Winton Capital Management
8) Graham Capital Management
9) SABA Capital Management
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
4) BHR Capital
5) Fisher Asset Management
6) Baupost Group
7) Fairfax Financial Holdings
8) Fairholme Capital
9) Trian Fund Management
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Schneider Capital Management
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Scout Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) ValueAct Capital
36) Vulcan Value Partners
37) Okumus Fund Management
38) Eagle Capital Management
39) Sasco Capital
40) Lyrical Asset Management
41) Gabelli Funds
42) Brave Warrior Advisors
43) Matrix Asset Advisors
44) Jet Capital
45) Starboard Value
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Appaloosa Capital Management
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) JAT Capital Management
8) Coatue Management
9) Omega Advisors (Leon Cooperman)
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Karsh Capital Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Andor Capital Management
29) Silver Point Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) SAB Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) T. Boone Pickens BP Capital
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Melvin Capital Partners
55) Owl Creek Asset Management
56) Portolan Capital Management
57) Proxima Capital Management
58) Tiger Global Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Viking Global Investors
63) Marshall Wace
64) York Capital Management
65) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Armistice Capital
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Palo Alto Investors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Ghost Tree Capital
10) Sectoral Asset Management
11) Oracle Investment Management
12) Perceptive Advisors
13) Consonance Capital Management
14) Camber Capital Management
15) Redmile Group
16) RTW Investments
17) Bridger Capital Management
18) Southeastern Asset Management
19) Bridgeway Capital Management
20) Cohen & Steers
21) Cardinal Capital Management
22) Munder Capital Management
23) Diamondhill Capital Management
24) Cortina Asset Management
25) Geneva Capital Management
26) Criterion Capital Management
27) Daruma Capital Management
28) 12 West Capital Management
29) RA Capital Management
30) Sarissa Capital Management
31) SIO Capital Management
32) Senzar Asset Management
33) Sphera Funds
34) Tang Capital Management
35) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
36) Venbio Select Advisors
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason Capital Management
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
2) Fiera Capital Corporation
3) West Face Capital
4) Hexavest
5) 1832 Asset Management
6) Jarislowsky, Fraser
7) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
8) TD Asset Management
9) CIBC Asset Management
10) Beutel, Goodman & Co
11) Greystone Managed Investments
12) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
13) Great West Life Assurance Co
14) Guardian Capital
15) Scotia Capital
16) AGF Investments
17) Montrusco Bolton
18) Venator Capital Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I track activity of some pension funds, endowment funds and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, CNBC's Landon Dowdy takes a look at how some of the Street's biggest money managers are investing their funds. And CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" crew discusses the morning's top attention-grabbing headlines, including a letter hedge fund investor Ray Dalio wrote to investors, stating to expect lower returns and higher risk (tell us something we don't know Ray!).
Lastly, Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz and Bloomberg's Julie Hyman examine the hedge fund winners and losers in the latest 13F filings. They speak on "Bloomberg Markets." Listen to Ritholtz, he's incredibly arrogant and annoying, but he says it like it is.
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