Top Funds' Activity in Q3 2019
Wayne Duggan of Benzinga reports on the Q3 13F roundup looking into how Buffett, Einhorn, Ackman and others adjusted their portfolios:
Before we begin, I'm going to warn you once again to take all this 13F stuff with a grain of salt as markets are continuously moving for all sorts of reasons and blindly buying what the "gurus" bought last quarter can lead you into a whole lot of trouble.
Also, before I share with you more insights on top funds' activity, I thought I'd share some very simple technical analysis advice with all you newbies and some of you veterans who really don't know how to analyze stock movements properly.
Let's begin by looking at shares of Apple (AAPL) which have been on a tear this year. I want you to go to Stockcharts.com and type in the symbol "AAPL" at the very top of the page where it prompts you type in symbol or name.
I took a screenshot of what should appear on your tablet or computer (click on image):
As you can see, the default settings are daily (at the top) and they include moving averages (defaults are 50 and 200-day moving averages) as well as the relative strength indicator (RSI) which is above the chart and moving average divergence/convergence indicator (MACD) which is below the chart. The RSI and MACD have their own defaults below the moving averages which I show you below:
The important thing to remember is these defaults are based on daily price signals, which is fine when looking at short-term movements of stocks.
What do the RSI and MACD picture on the daily chart of Apple tell me? They tell me the stock is overbought on a short-term basis and is due for a correction as the Both the RSI and MACD is weakening.
Now, I am going to change the daily default at the top to "weekly" and add a 20-week moving average and change the period where it says "fill in the range" to go back five years and then click on "update".
You can all easily do this, I can teach a six-year-old child to do it. Here is the chart you will see once you change these settings (click on image):
Again, this is a very bullish chart, shares of Apple remain above their 20, 50 and 200-week moving averages and unlike the daily chart, the weekly RSI and MACD are overbought but not turning down, signalling more gains are likely ahead.
I typically use 5-year weekly charts to go over any stock and make quick decisions as to whether it's overbought, oversold or getting set to rip higher or plunge lower.
[Note: if you're a paying subscriber to Stockcharts.com, you can even do this analysis using monthly indicators going back a lot further.]
This doesn't mean shares of Apple will go higher as I firmly believe the big money in Apple was already made this year, but it shows you how momentum feeds stocks and once a certain level is breached, they can go a lot higher than your daily charts suggest.
Now, let me share something else with you but to do this, we need to go to the old Nasdaq website which is available here. The new Nasdaq website doesn't contain the fund data yet.
Anyway, again enter the Apple's symbol (AAPL) at the very top of the page and it will take you to this page where you will see this (click on image):
Now, see that blue box on the left-hand side, scroll all the way to the bottom and click on "Institutional Holdings" to take you to this page where you will see this:
On this page, you see the top holders of Apple shares. Obviously, given its weighting in the overall indexes, ETF providers like Vanguard and BlackRock are the top holders followed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire which comes in number 3.
You will notice Buffett didn't sell his large stake in Apple in Q3 (marginally sold some but it's trivial), but this doesn't tell us what his fund is doing right now as I write this comment.
For all we know, he might be booking profits right now after this incredible run-up or he might wait till Q1 2020 to sell a sizable stake (I'd be booking my profits just based on my technical analysis above but Buffett may have an in-depth fundamental story as to why he thinks shares remain considerably undervalued at these levels. Interestingly, Buffett is sitting on $128 billion, raising questions about whether the market is overvalued).
Anyway, when I click on the column heading "Change (%)" twice I get to this page where I can see which funds added big to their Apple holdings during the last quarter:
Sometimes this data is wonky. For example, Berkshire is at the top but it didn't add big last quarter as Buffett already held those shares and didn't add big last quarter.
But I did notice top hedge funds like Bluecrest Capital Management run by Michael Platt (it returned all outside capital to investors in 2015 but is still widely followed) and Balyasny Asset Management run by Dmitry Balyasny.
Keep in mind, these are top hedge funds but it's also important to note that many of them have struggled this year. Last month, Bloomberg published an article on how Steve Cohen's Point72 and Balyasny led decline among big multi-strategy funds.
You might be surprised to learn in a year where stocks are melting up, a lot of top hedge funds are struggling and some, like Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, are closing shop after disappointing returns in his top funds.
Believe it or not, this is a very brutal environment for top hedge funds. Central banks have made their lives miserable and consequently, many are forced to close their doors (but many elite funds are doing just fine and the ones that are closing have bilked their clients on fees over many years so don't shed a tear for them).
Anyway, before I end this comment with the list of links to top funds' Q3 activity, I thought it would be useful to look at some of the stocks in biotech land that that caught my attention lately, namely, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) and Clovis Oncology (CLVS):
Clovis has literally come back from a death spiral over the last 5 trading sessions, almost doubling in share price, and not surprisingly, Arrowhead is one of the best-performing stocks this year:
I can literally kick myself because at one point I owned 5,000 shares of Arrowhead at $5 just like at one point I owned 5,000 shares of Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) at $5 a share and just like Arrowhead, sold it way too early:
Another biotech stock that shot up big recently was Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX), another one of the best-performing stocks this year, soaring after reporting an upbeat trial results of schizophrenia treatment:
By the way, my father and brother are both psychiatrists, haven't asked them about this drug but one thing I do know is schizophrenia is a notoriously difficult illness to treat and there haven't been any breakthrough treatments in decades (hope this drug is a game changer but I remain cautious).
The problem with biotechs is they're binary -- you can make a killing but most of the time you'll lose your shirt (and underwear) -- and even the best biotech funds get whacked hard on some their picks. Witness what happened to La Jolla Pharmaceutical (LJPC) this week:
I almost bought this stock a month ago thinking it is breaking out but thank God I forgot about it and didn't touch it! (probably a good time to buy 1000 shares and forget about it)
One stock that burned me this year following the opioid litigation was Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) which is owned by Buffett's Berkshire (his lieutenant bought it, not him) and David Abrams:
Shares of Teva have been coming back lately but it's way too early to jump back in based on that weekly chart above and the stock has been very frustrating to say the least because of all the headline risk. Still, I am tracking this company very closely as I really like its long-term prospects.
Anyway, all this to show you never follow stock gurus blindly, most of the time, you'll get burned badly. If you enter any position, make sure you haver a clear exit strategy following gains or losses.
This is why most investors don't invest in individual stocks, preferring to invest in the total market (SPY) or in sector ETFs, like Technology (XLK) which has been on fire this year led by stocks like Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) which is also on a tear this year (these two stocks make up 40% of the technology ETF):
Now, if I told you last year, tech shares would surge 42% this year as we enter December, you would have said I'm crazy and rightfully so, but that's where we are going into year-end.
Truth be told, the macro backdrop is great for growth stocks. All that central bank easing (not just the Fed but all central banks) is providing ample liquidity which is going into risk assets like stocks and corporate bonds.
Add a bit of year-end FOMO (fear of missing out) and presto, stocks have quietly melted up in the last quarter of the year, a 180 degree reversal from last year when stocks got killed in Q4.
On that note, have fun looking at the latest quarterly activity of top funds listed below. The links take you straight to their top holdings and then click on the column head "Change (%)" to see where they increased and decreased their holdings (you have to click once or twice to see).
I added Orbis to my list of funds as I recently met two representatives of this fund in Montreal and was very impressed with the history, core values, approach and especially alignment of interests which includes refundable fees.
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Appaloosa LP
2) Citadel Advisors
3) Balyasny Asset Management
4) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
5) Peak6 Investments
6) Kingdon Capital Management
7) Millennium Management
8) Farallon Capital Management
9) HBK Investments
10) Highbridge Capital Management
11) Highland Capital Management
12) Hudson Bay Capital Management
13) Pentwater Capital Management
14) Och-Ziff Capital Management
15) Carlson Capital Management
16) Magnetar Capital
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Paloma Partners
20) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
21) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest across fixed income, currency, commodity and equity markets.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money.
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)
7) Tudor Investment Corporation (Paul Tudor Jones)
8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
9) Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone)
10 Moore Capital Management
11) Element Capital
12) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Quant and Market Neutral Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make their returns, typically using high-frequency models so they churn their portfolios often. A few of them have outstanding long-term track records and many believe quants are taking over the world. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta. Some are large asset managers that specialize in factor investing.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Cubist Systematic Strategies (a quant division of Point72)
6) Numeric Investors now part of Man Group
7) Analytic Investors
8) AQR Capital Management
9) Dimensional Fund Advisors
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
12) PDT Partners
13) Angelo Gordon
14) Quantitative Systematic Strategies
15) Quantitative Investment Management
16) Bayesian Capital Management
17) SABA Capital Management
18) Quadrature Capital
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management (the one-man wealth machine)
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) TCI Fund Management
4) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
5) BHR Capital
6) Fisher Asset Management
7) Baupost Group
8) Fairfax Financial Holdings
9) Fairholme Capital
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Gabelli Funds
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Polaris Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) Schneider Capital Management
36) ValueAct Capital
37) Vulcan Value Partners
38) Okumus Fund Management
39) Eagle Capital Management
40) Sasco Capital
41) Lyrical Asset Management
42) Gabelli Funds
43) Brave Warrior Advisors
44) Matrix Asset Advisors
45) Jet Capital
46) Conatus Capital Management
47) Starboard Value
48) Pzena Investment Management
49) Trian Fund Management
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well-known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Viking Global Investors
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman)
8) Coatue Management
9) D1 Capital Partners
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Honeycomb Asset Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Penserra Capital Management
29) Eminence Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) Tide Point Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) Suvretta Capital Management
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Park West Asset Management
55) Melvin Capital Partners
56) Owl Creek Asset Management
57) Portolan Capital Management
58) Proxima Capital Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Marshall Wace
63) Light Street Capital Management
64) Rock Springs Capital Management
65) Rubric Capital Management
66) Whale Rock Capital
67) York Capital Management
68) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Avoro Capital Advisors (formerly Venbio Select Advisors)
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Perceptive Advisors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Birchview Capital
10) Ghost Tree Capital
11) Sectoral Asset Management
12) Oracle Investment Management
13) Palo Alto Investors
14) Consonance Capital Management
15) Camber Capital Management
16) Redmile Group
17) RTW Investments
18) Bridger Capital Management
19) Boxer Capital
20) Bridgeway Capital Management
21) Cohen & Steers
22) Cardinal Capital Management
23) Munder Capital Management
24) Diamondhill Capital Management
25) Cortina Asset Management
26) Geneva Capital Management
27) Criterion Capital Management
28) Daruma Capital Management
29) 12 West Capital Management
30) RA Capital Management
31) Sarissa Capital Management
32) Rock Springs Capital Management
33) Senzar Asset Management
34) Southeastern Asset Management
35) Sphera Funds
36) Tang Capital Management
37) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
38) Ecor1 Capital
39) Opaleye Management
40) NEA Management Company
41) Great Point Partners
42) Tekla Capital Management
43) Van Berkom and Associates
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason (Bill Miller)
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
37) Brandywine Global
38) Brown Capital Management
39) Victory Capital Management
40) Orbis
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Addenda Capital
2) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
3) Fiera Capital Corporation
4) West Face Capital
5) Hexavest
6) 1832 Asset Management
7) Jarislowsky, Fraser
8) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
9) TD Asset Management
10) CIBC Asset Management
11) Beutel, Goodman & Co
12) Greystone Managed Investments
13) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
14) Great West Life Assurance Co
15) Guardian Capital
16) Scotia Capital
17) AGF Investments
18) Montrusco Bolton
19) CI Investments
20) Venator Capital Management
21) Van Berkom and Associates
22) Formula Growth
23) Hillsdale Investment Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I the track activity of some pension funds, endowment and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, Berkshire Hathaway's 13F SEC form is out and it revealed its stake in Restoration Hardware (RH) is worth about $210 million. CNBC's Leslie Picker reports.
As shown below, the stock has been on fire since bottoming out in late June, so I wouldn't chase it here even if Mr. Buffett increased his stake:
Second, hedge Fund legend Louis Bacon is calling it quits after three decades. CNBC's Leslie Picker reports. Like I said above, it's a brutal market and even the best of the best are having a tough time “delivering alpha” (who needs alpha when you’re getting ten years of outstanding beta and finding great active managers is becoming harder and harder?).
Lastly, Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, and David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, join "Squawk on the Street" to discuss the record-setting market.
Listen carefully to David Zervos, he explains why stocks have been on a tear lately.
It's that time of the year again when we get a sneak peek at what the world's richest and most powerful fund managers bought and sold last quarter, with the customary 45-day lag.The latest round of 13F filings from institutional investors is out, revealing to the world the stocks that some of the richest and most successful investors have been buying and selling.Takeaways From 13F SeasonInvestors who follow particular fund managers can easily look up what each was buying and selling in the quarter, but other investors may be more interested in overall themes from 13F filings. Overall, it appears buying and selling among fund managers was split relatively evenly in the third quarter.
- Surprisingly, despite a 27.1% drop in Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares in the third quarter, no major fund manager mentioned below was buying or selling shares.
- The FANG group didn’t get much attention at all in the third quarter aside from David Tepper buying Facebook, Amazon and Google.
- Carl Icahn took a gamble on Caesars Entertainment, while George Soros dialed back his position.
- Several fund managers made major adjustments to their ETF positions, including Tepper selling the XOP ETF, Leon Cooperman buying the GLD ETF, and Soros selling both the QQQ and the IWB funds.
- As interest rates fell, dividend stocks were getting some love this quarter, with fund managers buying stocks like General Motors, BP and Carnival, each of which yield more than 4%.
Here’s a rundown of how the smart money was playing some of the most popular stocks last quarter.
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital
Notable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Chemours Co (NYSE: CC)
- Brighthouse Financial Inc (NASDAQ: BHF)
- General Motors Company (NYSE: GM)
- Neubase Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: NBSE)
- Adient PLC (NYSE: ADNT)
David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management
- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (NYSE: HGV)
- KAR Auction Services Inc (NYSE: KAR)
- Valaris PLC (NYSE: VAL)
- Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE: DDS)
Notable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: GOOG)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU)
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE: BABA)
- Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)
- PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG)
- Boeing Co (NYSE: BA)
Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Prod. (NYSE: XOP)
Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors
Notable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Fiserv Inc (NASDAQ: FISV)
- SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
- Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR)
- Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL)
- Navient Corp (NASDAQ: NAVI)
Notable Q3 Sells/Decreases:
- Nielsen Holdings PLC (NYSE: NLSN)
- Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO)
- AMC NETWORKS INC (NASDAQ: AMCX)
Barry Rosenstein’s Jana PartnersNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (NYSE: AXTA)
- Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc (NYSE: ZBH)
- HD Supply Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HDS)
- Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK)
- Falcon Minerals Corp (NASDAQ: FLMN)
Jeff Smith’s Starboard ValueNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Perrigo Company PLC (NYSE: PRGO)
- Natus Medical Inc (NASDAQ: NTUS)
- Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRVL)
- Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR)
- Cars.com Inc (NYSE: CARS)
Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- Box Inc (NYSE: BOX)
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire HathawayNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC)
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
- Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)
- Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: SIRI)
George Soros’ Soros Fund ManagementNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ: PTON)
- Ally Financial Inc (NYSE: ALLY)
- BP plc (NYSE: BP)
- Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C)
- Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG)
Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ)
- Caesars Entertainment Corporation (NASDAQ: CZR)
- Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS)
- iShares Russell 1000 Index (NYSE: IWB)
- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)
- Slack Technologies Inc (NYSE: WORK)
- LYFT Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT)
Carl Icahn’s Icahn CapitalNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- HP Inc (NYSE: HPQ)
- Cloudera Inc (NYSE: CLDR)
- Icahn Enterprises LP (NASDAQ: IEP)
- Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE: HTZ)
- Conduent Inc (NYSE: CNDT)
- Caesars Entertainment
Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square CapitalNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (NYSE: BRK-B)
Notable Q3 Sells/Reductions:
- Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ: ADP)
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG)
- Hilton Hotels Corporation (NYSE: HLT)
- Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE: QSR)
- Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW)
- United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX)
Nelson Peltz’s Trian PartnersNotable Q3 Buys/Increases:
- Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE: PG)
- MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (NASDAQ: MDLZ)
- Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM)
- General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)
Notable Q3 Sells/Decreases:
Before we begin, I'm going to warn you once again to take all this 13F stuff with a grain of salt as markets are continuously moving for all sorts of reasons and blindly buying what the "gurus" bought last quarter can lead you into a whole lot of trouble.
Also, before I share with you more insights on top funds' activity, I thought I'd share some very simple technical analysis advice with all you newbies and some of you veterans who really don't know how to analyze stock movements properly.
Let's begin by looking at shares of Apple (AAPL) which have been on a tear this year. I want you to go to Stockcharts.com and type in the symbol "AAPL" at the very top of the page where it prompts you type in symbol or name.
I took a screenshot of what should appear on your tablet or computer (click on image):
As you can see, the default settings are daily (at the top) and they include moving averages (defaults are 50 and 200-day moving averages) as well as the relative strength indicator (RSI) which is above the chart and moving average divergence/convergence indicator (MACD) which is below the chart. The RSI and MACD have their own defaults below the moving averages which I show you below:
The important thing to remember is these defaults are based on daily price signals, which is fine when looking at short-term movements of stocks.
What do the RSI and MACD picture on the daily chart of Apple tell me? They tell me the stock is overbought on a short-term basis and is due for a correction as the Both the RSI and MACD is weakening.
Now, I am going to change the daily default at the top to "weekly" and add a 20-week moving average and change the period where it says "fill in the range" to go back five years and then click on "update".
You can all easily do this, I can teach a six-year-old child to do it. Here is the chart you will see once you change these settings (click on image):
Again, this is a very bullish chart, shares of Apple remain above their 20, 50 and 200-week moving averages and unlike the daily chart, the weekly RSI and MACD are overbought but not turning down, signalling more gains are likely ahead.
I typically use 5-year weekly charts to go over any stock and make quick decisions as to whether it's overbought, oversold or getting set to rip higher or plunge lower.
[Note: if you're a paying subscriber to Stockcharts.com, you can even do this analysis using monthly indicators going back a lot further.]
This doesn't mean shares of Apple will go higher as I firmly believe the big money in Apple was already made this year, but it shows you how momentum feeds stocks and once a certain level is breached, they can go a lot higher than your daily charts suggest.
Now, let me share something else with you but to do this, we need to go to the old Nasdaq website which is available here. The new Nasdaq website doesn't contain the fund data yet.
Anyway, again enter the Apple's symbol (AAPL) at the very top of the page and it will take you to this page where you will see this (click on image):
Now, see that blue box on the left-hand side, scroll all the way to the bottom and click on "Institutional Holdings" to take you to this page where you will see this:
On this page, you see the top holders of Apple shares. Obviously, given its weighting in the overall indexes, ETF providers like Vanguard and BlackRock are the top holders followed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire which comes in number 3.
You will notice Buffett didn't sell his large stake in Apple in Q3 (marginally sold some but it's trivial), but this doesn't tell us what his fund is doing right now as I write this comment.
For all we know, he might be booking profits right now after this incredible run-up or he might wait till Q1 2020 to sell a sizable stake (I'd be booking my profits just based on my technical analysis above but Buffett may have an in-depth fundamental story as to why he thinks shares remain considerably undervalued at these levels. Interestingly, Buffett is sitting on $128 billion, raising questions about whether the market is overvalued).
Anyway, when I click on the column heading "Change (%)" twice I get to this page where I can see which funds added big to their Apple holdings during the last quarter:
Sometimes this data is wonky. For example, Berkshire is at the top but it didn't add big last quarter as Buffett already held those shares and didn't add big last quarter.
But I did notice top hedge funds like Bluecrest Capital Management run by Michael Platt (it returned all outside capital to investors in 2015 but is still widely followed) and Balyasny Asset Management run by Dmitry Balyasny.
Keep in mind, these are top hedge funds but it's also important to note that many of them have struggled this year. Last month, Bloomberg published an article on how Steve Cohen's Point72 and Balyasny led decline among big multi-strategy funds.
You might be surprised to learn in a year where stocks are melting up, a lot of top hedge funds are struggling and some, like Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, are closing shop after disappointing returns in his top funds.
Believe it or not, this is a very brutal environment for top hedge funds. Central banks have made their lives miserable and consequently, many are forced to close their doors (but many elite funds are doing just fine and the ones that are closing have bilked their clients on fees over many years so don't shed a tear for them).
Anyway, before I end this comment with the list of links to top funds' Q3 activity, I thought it would be useful to look at some of the stocks in biotech land that that caught my attention lately, namely, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) and Clovis Oncology (CLVS):
Clovis has literally come back from a death spiral over the last 5 trading sessions, almost doubling in share price, and not surprisingly, Arrowhead is one of the best-performing stocks this year:
I can literally kick myself because at one point I owned 5,000 shares of Arrowhead at $5 just like at one point I owned 5,000 shares of Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) at $5 a share and just like Arrowhead, sold it way too early:
Another biotech stock that shot up big recently was Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX), another one of the best-performing stocks this year, soaring after reporting an upbeat trial results of schizophrenia treatment:
By the way, my father and brother are both psychiatrists, haven't asked them about this drug but one thing I do know is schizophrenia is a notoriously difficult illness to treat and there haven't been any breakthrough treatments in decades (hope this drug is a game changer but I remain cautious).
The problem with biotechs is they're binary -- you can make a killing but most of the time you'll lose your shirt (and underwear) -- and even the best biotech funds get whacked hard on some their picks. Witness what happened to La Jolla Pharmaceutical (LJPC) this week:
I almost bought this stock a month ago thinking it is breaking out but thank God I forgot about it and didn't touch it! (probably a good time to buy 1000 shares and forget about it)
One stock that burned me this year following the opioid litigation was Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) which is owned by Buffett's Berkshire (his lieutenant bought it, not him) and David Abrams:
Shares of Teva have been coming back lately but it's way too early to jump back in based on that weekly chart above and the stock has been very frustrating to say the least because of all the headline risk. Still, I am tracking this company very closely as I really like its long-term prospects.
Anyway, all this to show you never follow stock gurus blindly, most of the time, you'll get burned badly. If you enter any position, make sure you haver a clear exit strategy following gains or losses.
This is why most investors don't invest in individual stocks, preferring to invest in the total market (SPY) or in sector ETFs, like Technology (XLK) which has been on fire this year led by stocks like Apple and Microsoft (MSFT) which is also on a tear this year (these two stocks make up 40% of the technology ETF):
Now, if I told you last year, tech shares would surge 42% this year as we enter December, you would have said I'm crazy and rightfully so, but that's where we are going into year-end.
Truth be told, the macro backdrop is great for growth stocks. All that central bank easing (not just the Fed but all central banks) is providing ample liquidity which is going into risk assets like stocks and corporate bonds.
Add a bit of year-end FOMO (fear of missing out) and presto, stocks have quietly melted up in the last quarter of the year, a 180 degree reversal from last year when stocks got killed in Q4.
On that note, have fun looking at the latest quarterly activity of top funds listed below. The links take you straight to their top holdings and then click on the column head "Change (%)" to see where they increased and decreased their holdings (you have to click once or twice to see).
I added Orbis to my list of funds as I recently met two representatives of this fund in Montreal and was very impressed with the history, core values, approach and especially alignment of interests which includes refundable fees.
Top multi-strategy and event driven hedge funds
As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:
1) Appaloosa LP
2) Citadel Advisors
3) Balyasny Asset Management
4) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)
5) Peak6 Investments
6) Kingdon Capital Management
7) Millennium Management
8) Farallon Capital Management
9) HBK Investments
10) Highbridge Capital Management
11) Highland Capital Management
12) Hudson Bay Capital Management
13) Pentwater Capital Management
14) Och-Ziff Capital Management
15) Carlson Capital Management
16) Magnetar Capital
17) Whitebox Advisors
18) QVT Financial
19) Paloma Partners
20) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors
21) York Capital Management
Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices
These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest across fixed income, currency, commodity and equity markets.
George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money.
1) Soros Fund Management
2) Icahn Associates
3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)
4) Bridgewater Associates
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)
7) Tudor Investment Corporation (Paul Tudor Jones)
8) Tiger Management (Julian Robertson)
9) Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone)
10 Moore Capital Management
11) Element Capital
12) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)
Top Quant and Market Neutral Hedge Funds
These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make their returns, typically using high-frequency models so they churn their portfolios often. A few of them have outstanding long-term track records and many believe quants are taking over the world. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta. Some are large asset managers that specialize in factor investing.
1) Alyeska Investment Group
2) Renaissance Technologies
3) DE Shaw & Co.
4) Two Sigma Investments
5) Cubist Systematic Strategies (a quant division of Point72)
6) Numeric Investors now part of Man Group
7) Analytic Investors
8) AQR Capital Management
9) Dimensional Fund Advisors
10) Quantitative Investment Management
11) Oxford Asset Management
12) PDT Partners
13) Angelo Gordon
14) Quantitative Systematic Strategies
15) Quantitative Investment Management
16) Bayesian Capital Management
17) SABA Capital Management
18) Quadrature Capital
Top Deep Value, Activist, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds
These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.
1) Abrams Capital Management (the one-man wealth machine)
2) Berkshire Hathaway
3) TCI Fund Management
4) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)
5) BHR Capital
6) Fisher Asset Management
7) Baupost Group
8) Fairfax Financial Holdings
9) Fairholme Capital
10) Gotham Asset Management
11) Fir Tree Partners
12) Elliott Associates
13) Jana Partners
14) Gabelli Funds
15) Highfields Capital Management
16) Eminence Capital
17) Pershing Square Capital Management
18) New Mountain Vantage Advisers
19) Atlantic Investment Management
20) Polaris Capital Management
21) Third Point
22) Marcato Capital Management
23) Glenview Capital Management
24) Apollo Management
25) Avenue Capital
26) Armistice Capital
27) Blue Harbor Group
28) Brigade Capital Management
29) Caspian Capital
30) Kerrisdale Advisers
31) Knighthead Capital Management
32) Relational Investors
33) Roystone Capital Management
34) Scopia Capital Management
35) Schneider Capital Management
36) ValueAct Capital
37) Vulcan Value Partners
38) Okumus Fund Management
39) Eagle Capital Management
40) Sasco Capital
41) Lyrical Asset Management
42) Gabelli Funds
43) Brave Warrior Advisors
44) Matrix Asset Advisors
45) Jet Capital
46) Conatus Capital Management
47) Starboard Value
48) Pzena Investment Management
49) Trian Fund Management
Top Long/Short Hedge Funds
These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well-known funds.
1) Adage Capital Management
2) Viking Global Investors
3) Greenlight Capital
4) Maverick Capital
5) Pointstate Capital Partners
6) Marathon Asset Management
7) Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman)
8) Coatue Management
9) D1 Capital Partners
10) Artis Capital Management
11) Fox Point Capital Management
12) Jabre Capital Partners
13) Lone Pine Capital
14) Paulson & Co.
15) Bronson Point Management
16) Hoplite Capital Management
17) LSV Asset Management
18) Hussman Strategic Advisors
19) Cantillon Capital Management
20) Brookside Capital Management
21) Blue Ridge Capital
22) Iridian Asset Management
23) Clough Capital Partners
24) GLG Partners LP
25) Cadence Capital Management
26) Honeycomb Asset Management
27) New Mountain Vantage
28) Penserra Capital Management
29) Eminence Capital
30) Steadfast Capital Management
31) Brookside Capital Management
32) PAR Capital Capital Management
33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co
34) Brahman Capital
35) Bridger Management
36) Kensico Capital Management
37) Kynikos Associates
38) Soroban Capital Partners
39) Passport Capital
40) Pennant Capital Management
41) Mason Capital Management
42) Tide Point Capital Management
43) Sirios Capital Management
44) Hayman Capital Management
45) Highside Capital Management
46) Tremblant Capital Group
47) Decade Capital Management
48) Suvretta Capital Management
49) Bloom Tree Partners
50) Cadian Capital Management
51) Matrix Capital Management
52) Senvest Partners
53) Falcon Edge Capital Management
54) Park West Asset Management
55) Melvin Capital Partners
56) Owl Creek Asset Management
57) Portolan Capital Management
58) Proxima Capital Management
59) Tourbillon Capital Partners
60) Impala Asset Management
61) Valinor Management
62) Marshall Wace
63) Light Street Capital Management
64) Rock Springs Capital Management
65) Rubric Capital Management
66) Whale Rock Capital
67) York Capital Management
68) Zweig-Dimenna Associates
Top Sector and Specialized Funds
I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.
1) Avoro Capital Advisors (formerly Venbio Select Advisors)
2) Baker Brothers Advisors
3) Perceptive Advisors
4) Broadfin Capital
5) Healthcor Management
6) Orbimed Advisors
7) Deerfield Management
8) BB Biotech AG
9) Birchview Capital
10) Ghost Tree Capital
11) Sectoral Asset Management
12) Oracle Investment Management
13) Palo Alto Investors
14) Consonance Capital Management
15) Camber Capital Management
16) Redmile Group
17) RTW Investments
18) Bridger Capital Management
19) Boxer Capital
20) Bridgeway Capital Management
21) Cohen & Steers
22) Cardinal Capital Management
23) Munder Capital Management
24) Diamondhill Capital Management
25) Cortina Asset Management
26) Geneva Capital Management
27) Criterion Capital Management
28) Daruma Capital Management
29) 12 West Capital Management
30) RA Capital Management
31) Sarissa Capital Management
32) Rock Springs Capital Management
33) Senzar Asset Management
34) Southeastern Asset Management
35) Sphera Funds
36) Tang Capital Management
37) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant
38) Ecor1 Capital
39) Opaleye Management
40) NEA Management Company
41) Great Point Partners
42) Tekla Capital Management
43) Van Berkom and Associates
Mutual Funds and Asset Managers
Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.
1) Fidelity
2) Blackrock Fund Advisors
3) Wellington Management
4) AQR Capital Management
5) Sands Capital Management
6) Brookfield Asset Management
7) Dodge & Cox
8) Eaton Vance Management
9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.
10) Geode Capital Management
11) Goldman Sachs Group
12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.
13) Morgan Stanley
14) Manulife Asset Management
15) RCM Capital Management
16) UBS Asset Management
17) Barclays Global Investor
18) Epoch Investment Partners
19) Thornburg Investment Management
20) Legg Mason (Bill Miller)
21) Kornitzer Capital Management
22) Batterymarch Financial Management
23) Tocqueville Asset Management
24) Neuberger Berman
25) Winslow Capital Management
26) Herndon Capital Management
27) Artisan Partners
28) Great West Life Insurance Management
29) Lazard Asset Management
30) Janus Capital Management
31) Franklin Resources
32) Capital Research Global Investors
33) T. Rowe Price
34) First Eagle Investment Management
35) Frontier Capital Management
36) Akre Capital Management
37) Brandywine Global
38) Brown Capital Management
39) Victory Capital Management
40) Orbis
Canadian Asset Managers
Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:
1) Addenda Capital
2) Letko, Brosseau and Associates
3) Fiera Capital Corporation
4) West Face Capital
5) Hexavest
6) 1832 Asset Management
7) Jarislowsky, Fraser
8) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management
9) TD Asset Management
10) CIBC Asset Management
11) Beutel, Goodman & Co
12) Greystone Managed Investments
13) Mackenzie Financial Corporation
14) Great West Life Assurance Co
15) Guardian Capital
16) Scotia Capital
17) AGF Investments
18) Montrusco Bolton
19) CI Investments
20) Venator Capital Management
21) Van Berkom and Associates
22) Formula Growth
23) Hillsdale Investment Management
Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Last but not least, I the track activity of some pension funds, endowment and sovereign wealth funds. I like to focus on funds that invest in top hedge funds and have internal alpha managers. Below, a sample of pension and endowment funds I track closely:
1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)
2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
5) OMERS Administration Corp.
6) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI)
7) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)
8) PGGM Investments
9) APG All Pensions Group
10) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)
11) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)
12) New York State Common Fund
13) New York State Teachers Retirement System
14) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System
15) State of Wisconsin Investment Board
16) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund
17) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio
18) STRS Ohio
19) Teacher Retirement System of Texas
20) Virginia Retirement Systems
21) TIAA CREF investment Management
22) Harvard Management Co.
23) Norges Bank
24) Nordea Investment Management
25) Korea Investment Corp.
26) Singapore Temasek Holdings
27) Yale Endowment Fund
Below, Berkshire Hathaway's 13F SEC form is out and it revealed its stake in Restoration Hardware (RH) is worth about $210 million. CNBC's Leslie Picker reports.
As shown below, the stock has been on fire since bottoming out in late June, so I wouldn't chase it here even if Mr. Buffett increased his stake:
Second, hedge Fund legend Louis Bacon is calling it quits after three decades. CNBC's Leslie Picker reports. Like I said above, it's a brutal market and even the best of the best are having a tough time “delivering alpha” (who needs alpha when you’re getting ten years of outstanding beta and finding great active managers is becoming harder and harder?).
Lastly, Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, and David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, join "Squawk on the Street" to discuss the record-setting market.
Listen carefully to David Zervos, he explains why stocks have been on a tear lately.
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