Prepare For The Crash of 2020?

William D. Cohan wrote an article for Vanity Fair on how hedge-funder Mark Spitznagel believes the central banks have created a monster they don’t know how to stop, and when it comes (like in 2008) he’ll be ready:
What do you do when the bond market is basically uninvestable and the stock market keeps hitting all-time highs and you know in your gut that none of this will end well? What do investors—big and small—do in such unfortunate circumstances, like the ones we collectively find ourselves in now? I’ve been racking my brain for years to figure that out. Increasingly desperate and with the end getting near, I called Mark Spitznagel, the founder of Universa Investments, a hedge fund that exists to help investors grapple with the inevitable market crash.

Spitznagel, 48, and a former trader in the Chicago pits and at Morgan Stanley, understands what’s been happening and how for the last decade central banks around the world have been warping our financial markets by keeping interest rates artificially low. “These monetary distortions lead to this reckless reach for yields that we are all seeing,” he tells me. He sees risk being mispriced everywhere. “Randomly go look at a screen and it’s pretty crazy,” he says. “Big caps, small caps, credit markets, volatility; it’s crazy. Reach for yield is everywhere.” He thinks we are in one of those periods where people have lost their collective minds when it comes to the financial markets.

“When the stock market is no longer tethered to fundamentals—that’s the distorted environment we live in, that’s just where we are—when that happens, any price can print,” he says. “Any price can print. We shouldn’t be surprised by anything on the upside at this point because what’s tethering the markets? People need yield and when they pursue yield because of the momentum that we have in the markets today, anything is possible.”

He thinks the yield hunger games, as I like to call what’s been happening for the last decade, “makes people take crazy risks” because “interest rates and prices are wrong” and “otherwise wouldn’t even clear the market. They are just absolutely wrong. But of course, central bankers think they know what the natural rate is and that it will all be fine. They think they’ve got it all figured out.”

He disagrees. First, he thinks the massive program of quantitative easing—where after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve intervened in the debt markets, buying up nearly everything in sight in an effort to raise the price of long-term bonds, driving down their yields—was a mistake. In the process, the Fed’s balance sheet ballooned to $4.5 trillion in assets, from around $900 billion. (These days, the Fed’s balance sheet is around $4.2 trillion.) “I’m a free market guy,” he says. “Whenever the government gets involved in things—and this is pretty much across the board—they make things worse. I can probably prove that. But it doesn’t really matter. We take what we have and this is the world we live in. And we’ve got to deal with it. I don’t want to complain too much about it. But we’d all be better off today had we not done that. There would’ve been more painful at the time but you rip the Band-Aid off, I think we’d all be better off.”

He also thinks central bankers don’t know how to stop the monster they have created. “I do not think that central bankers will ever be able to pull away from this,” he explains. “They will never be able to ‘normalize’ rates. In our lifetime, recessions and stock market crashes really have been instigated or started by central banks sort of pulling away the punch bowl. They raise rates and that has led to a slow down and ultimately has led to these crashes that we see. Every single one, that’s how it’s happened. But we’ve gone so far down the rabbit hole this time, I am absolutely convinced that that is not even on the table this time.” He thinks central bankers are just testing the market when they suggest—as Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, did throughout 2018 when he raised short-term interest rates four times—that they wanted to try to return to letting supply and demand set the price of money, a position that he reversed in 2019 when he pivoted and then lowered interest rates. “They’re not stupid,” he says of central bankers. “They are reckless. But they are not stupid. And they realize that global economies are in a situation now where central banks can’t pull away. And they’re bluffing if they say they can.”

He doesn’t know when the inevitable crash will come. But he knows that when interest rates start heading up again on their own, which is also inevitable, that “markets are going to crash. It won’t be pretty.”

Working with the economist (and his former professor at NYU) Nassim Nicholas Taleb —the author of the 2007 best seller, The Black Swan (Spitznagel is working on new book, Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms, for which Taleb is writing the foreword)—as an adviser, Spitznagel’s hedge fund has come up with a strategy to help big investors—for instance pension funds and endowment funds—protect their portfolios against the coming correction. Essentially, he offers his clients low-cost, high-deductible fire insurance, the kind you might buy on your house to sleep comfortably at night knowing that if a fire destroyed the place you would be able to replace it with a minimal cash outlay. He essentially offers his clients peace of mind, allowing them to continue participating in the roaring debt and equity markets while also knowing that, for a relatively low cost, they will be protected when the inevitable crash comes.

His solution is what he calls “explosive downside protection,” things like far out of the money bets that the stock markets will fall that cost very little to make and to hold onto but that will pay off big time when the shit hits the fan. “Really explosive downside protection is really the only risk mitigation that’s able to move the needle for people,” he says, “because it’s the only risk mitigation that doesn’t cost you as you are waiting for it to happen.” He likes to focus on his clients’ total portfolio returns, inclusive of the cost of the insurance he offers them. “When the market crashes,” he continues, “I want to make a whole lot and when the market doesn’t crash, I want to lose a teeny, teeny amount. I want that asymmetry. I want that convexity. And what that means is I provide insurance—crash insurance—to my clients so they can put a sliver of their portfolio liquidity into it and then, because of the downside protection I provide, they are allowed to then take more systematic risk.”

Historically, Spitznagel has delivered. He was a big winner in the aftermath of the 2008 stock market crash—portfolio up more than 115 percent—even though people like hedge fund manager John Paulson and the proprietary trading desk at Goldman Sachs got more attention. In a March 2018 letter to his investors, which tracked his decade in business, he revealed that a small—3%—allocation to him and his strategies —to pay for the “explosive downside protection” even though there has not been a crash since 2008—has allowed his clients’ portfolios to consistently outperform the S&P 500 year after year. “That’s incredible,” he says. “We’ve outperformed the S&P which is a crazy thing to say.”

And even though he is betting there will be a crash—and offering protection for his clients if there is one—he doesn’t care if it happens or not. He’s all about freeing up his clients to make the big bets in the market and then protecting them if a crash comes. He’s the designated driver so that his clients can party like its 1999 and know they’ll have a safe ride home. “I don’t need the markets to ever crash again,” he says. “I’d be pretty hunky-dory if there’s never a crash again and that, from now on, every year looks like last year or the last 5 years or the last 10 years. I’d be just fine with that…. My investors would benefit so much from that because I allow them to take more systematic risk. In other risk mitigated portfolios, like hedge fund portfolios and even stock-bond mix, they are going to look really bad compared to my risk-mitigated portfolio.”

Spitznagel is not shy about criticizing his fellow hedge fund managers who don’t provide the kind of “explosive downside protection” that he does. “Hedge funds underperform when times are good and they don’t make up for it when times are bad,” he says. “I aim to lose tiny amounts when times are good, and I more than make up for it when times are bad.”

Spitznagel spends most of his time these days in Miami, where Universa is based, but he also owns Idyll Farms, a goat-cheese farm in Michigan that is said to make some of the best goat cheese around. He also practices ashtanga yoga and is an aficionado of Austrian economics and, in particular of the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises. Universa manages around $5 billion, so it’s far from the biggest hedge fund. But, he says, he’s gaining traction among pension fund investors who see the wisdom of his approach.

I confess that I also see the wisdom of his approach and regret that it’s not really an option for small investors who remain vulnerable to the coming market correction in ways that Spitznagel’s investors are not. Is there some way that the little guy can benefit from his wisdom? “I get asked this every day,” he says. “Every day. And I should do something for them. But I have a handful of really big clients. Yeah, if I wasn’t so preoccupied, I would do that. I should do that. I should do that.”
Let me first thank  Claude Macorin of Macor Capital Management for sending me this article. Macor Capital Management is an independent, Canadian investment consulting firm based in Toronto that provides customized advisory services to the not-for-profit and broader public sectors, and trusts.

Claude asked me if I ever heard about Mark Spitznagel and I told him I haven't but find the article interesting enough that if I was allocating to hedge funds, I'd contact him at Universa Investments to understand how exactly his "explosive downside protection" works in practice.

Long ago, I used to allocate to directional hedge funds. I live, breathe and eat the stock market so I'd  relish chatting with a guy like Spitznagel and would ask a lot of questions.

I'd basically grill the guy hard because I've seen a lot of so-called tail risk funds come and mostly go as the greatest bull market in history has plowed over them, leaving them in the dust.

Spitznagel isn't really singing anything new. Most of these tail risk funds will tell you a similar story. Central banks have grossly distorted markets with their unorthodox monetary policies, investors are reaching for yield as rates have fallen to record ultra-low levels, and the end game won't be pretty when rates "inevitably rise" and the music stops.

It's that last part that is confounding investors. You see, unlike Spitznagel, I'm not so sure rates will rise during the next decade and I remain convinced that deflation will ultimately strike the US and that's when the coming crash will leave a generation of pain.

Central banks are doing everything in their power to keep this monster rally alive to avoid the deflation trap, and so far, they're winning.

That brings me to my other point, this mania we are witnessing in markets right now can last a lot longer than we think. The old saying, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, is something we all know too well.

Why is this important? Because while Spitznagel is offering his clients "explosive downside protection", the CTAs and quant hedge funds taking over the world are cleaning up house, offering their clients "explosive upside protection" (with lots of help from global central banks pumping massive liquidity into the global financial system, essentially making beta great again).

So far this year, tech stocks (XLK) are once again leading the markets to record highs led by stalwarts like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG), but also by other high-flyers like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) which has gone parabolic and doesn't seem to want to get pulled back to earth:

Take a close look at the charts above and you can understand why investors are extremely nervous. Either they chase these high-flying tech stocks to the moon, or they ignore them and risk severely underperforming once again this year.

And right now, with central banks going ALL IN, it's the fear of missing out which reigns supreme.

But money managers are nervous. You can see it by looking at the best-performing sectors year-to-date:

The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 4.4% year-to-date (price, not total return) led by Technology (XLK) and Utility (XLU) shares which are up 10.7% and 8.4% respectively (again, price returns, not total returns).

It's not odd that utilities are doing well given US long bonds (TLT) are outperforming again this year:

And it's this barbell approach of going Long Tech (high beta)/ Long Utilities (low beta, high dividend) and Long Bonds which is once again proving successful.

How long will this last? Nobody knows but some very experienced investors are warning that there are ‘lots of troubles coming’ because of ‘too much wretched excess’:
Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, issued a dire warning about the future on Wednesday.

“I think there are lots of troubles coming,” he said at the Los Angeles-based Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. “There’s too much wretched excess.”

Munger — who chairs the publisher — highlighted how much risk investors are taking when investing, particularly in China.

“In China, … they love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid,” Munger said. “It’s hard to imagine anything dumber than the way the Chinese hold stocks.”

In the U.S. alone, investors face risks ranging from the coronavirus’ impact on the economy to political uncertainty from the upcoming presidential election. Also, the Treasury announced on Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit increased by 25% in the first four months of the fiscal 2020 period to $1.06 trillion. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both hit record highs on Wednesday.

‘Bulls--- earnings’

To make his point about excess, Munger cited the proliferation of EBITDA as a fake profit metric. “I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls--- earnings,” he said.

“It’s ridiculous,” Munger said, noting EBITDA — which is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — does not accurately reflect how much money a company makes, unlike traditional earnings. “Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA. You’re almost announcing you’re a flake.”

Uber shares jumped last week after saying it was moving up its “EBITDA profitability” target to the fourth quarter of this year.

But that’s not all that’s bothering Munger. He also said the innovation boom he has experienced throughout his life could start to wane.

“I do think that my generation had the best of all this technological change,” said Munger, 96, noting medicine has improved dramatically during his lifetime while inventions such as air conditioning have increased the standard of living. “I don’t think we’re going to get as much improvement in the future because we’ve gotten so much already.”

Investors of all stripes look forward to Munger’s annual address since because of the wisdom he shares. Munger is also considered to be one of the best investors and business thinkers ever. Before joining Buffett at Berkshire, Munger ran an investment partnership that returned an average of 20% per year from 1962 to 1975. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 averaged an annual return of just 5% in that time.
Love Charlie Munger, think he's right about "too much wretched excesses" and that EBITDA is total BS but I'm not with him when it comes to the "end of major innovation". I think there he needs a good serving of humble pie when making those statements (nobody knows what the future holds).

Speaking of nobody knowing what the future holds, I keep telling everyone not to underestimate the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) even if the market is seemingly looking beyond it:

We still know very little about this new virus. The only thing I can tell you for sure is it's spreading fast, China is lying about how bad it really is and the CDC's director is now warning it will become widespread in the United States 'probably beyond 2020'.

[Update: Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH, appeared on CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday morning and he clearly stated: "...we do not know what this particular virus is gonna do so. So we would think it would be a stretch to assume that it's going to disappear with the warm weather. We don't know that. It's completely unknown."]

But don't you worry, the quants and algos are programmed to buy every major dip in the S&P as the news of coronavirus spreading gathers steam and they're all gunning for Nasdaq 10,000.

Central banks are playing their part too and they stand ready to increase their balance sheets by 10, 20, 30 or 50% of GDP -- whatever it takes to fight deflation and save capitalism from the "wretched excesses" which plagues it.

On that note, enjoy your weekend, I doubt we will see these markets crash any time soon but if you're nervous, start reducing your risk and hedge accordingly.

Below, Universa Investments Chief Investment Officer Mark Spitznagel sits down with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker to discuss the next market crash, the size of the hedge fund industry and worries around hedging market risk (February 2019). Interesting guy, listen carefully to what he says.

Next, investing legend Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman and chairman of the Daily Journal, speaks to shareholders at the newspaper's annual meeting. Munger is best known for his steady role as the right-hand man of investing legend Warren Buffett. This is long but it's Munger at his best, so take the time to watch it.

Third, CNBC's Meg Tirrell on the latest coronavirus numbers coming out of China and how China takes wartime population control measures to fight the virus's spread. With former FDA Commissioner Scott Gotlieb.

Lastly, since it's Valentine's Day and I don't want to end on a gloomy note. Check out a clip of this dog's love for Astronaut Christina Koch upon her return to Earth after spending a year in space.

Now, that's real unconditional love! I wonder if Ms. Koch will visit the moon before the S&P and Nasdaq do. Have a great weekend, Happy Valentine's Day!